I am absolutely fascinated by the movement of the euro today. Here is a currency which is probably the most important currency in the world today. Here is a currency that has a host of problems and if some people are to be believed, it is on the brink of collapse. Here is a currency which is going to have a big decision on it tomorrow. Tomorrow is not going to be a normal news day for the euro.
Cos something that doesnt happen for 9 or 10 months a year is going to happen. There is going to be a rate hike tomorrow and that doesnt happen usually. In such a situation, the euro breaks a major resistance and keeps going up.
Common sense says that a trader should be on the sidelines or atleast think long and hard before establishing longs when a huge news event tomorrow. So how come people are buying euro now when they do not know what is going to happen tomorrow? Or do the huge traders know something that others dont? Or, more importantly, are they moving this up to trap many traders and then bring down the whole house tomorrow after the news?
Which one of the above is probable? Its anybody's guess and thats why this euro upmove is fascinating. My personal opinion is that euro will move up today and tomorrow and there will be a fall after the decision tomorrow. I believe that all this upmove is to trap the poor traders into longs. I believe euro could go up till about 1.44 or so and then fall.
Well, all the above could happen or none of it can happen and euro could continue to move up to 1.45 or 1.46 and make me look like a complete fool. Whichever way it is, i can make a wrong analysis but i wont make a wrong trade. I will stay on the sidelines till i know the real direction after the news, i will use strict stop losses and will trade well.
Lets see how things go. Be careful with your trades and keep it tight.
Trade safe !!
