Intra-Day Outlook for EURUSD - 10th Feb 2011

Attached is the EURUSD chart with the levels. The levels have not changed over the past few days. Today might just be the day when you need to just throw away all your indicators and stuff and just go with the flow.

I look for certain signs and the signs say that today will be a bullish day, though the signs arent very bright. But irrespective of these signs, i would be bullish today just for one reason. The fact that a strong resistance has been broken after many days, i would expect a reaction to this break. With the price holding above the resistance turned support, there should be a good reaction to this break.

So, for today, expect a pullback to 1.3700s or 1.3680s and then a move towards 1.38 and beyond. As i said, the break of resistance at 1.3680 is a good enough sign for us to be bullish on the euro.

Trade carefully, and as i always say, be nimble and switch positions when you see something wrong on the charts.

Quick Review of Today's Outlook - 9th Feb 2011

In the morning, we had expected a move towards 1.3750 for the euro. The high of the day was printed just a few mins back and it was 1.3743 with my broker. We did manage to break above the crucial resistance at 1.3680 and finally we managed to reach 1.3740 as predicted in the morning. The breakout above 1.3680 took a long time coming but considering how shallow the dips were becoming, it was only a matter of time before the resistance broke. We have lot of resistance above but i guess we can safely expect a move towards 1.39-1.40 in the coming days.

For GBPUSD, as expected, the upmove was very slow and difficult. There was lot of ranging and we had expected to see 1.6160 today but we managed a high of only 1.6120. The pound seems to be under a lot of pressure but the support is also holding up and so tomorrow, when the rate statement would be released, should be very interesting.

Intra Day Outlook for GBPUSD - 9th Feb 2011

Attached is the chart for GBPUSD. Yesterday, i had said that GU would drop and it did drop for abt 80 pips from that point when i posted it. But the huge recovery with high volume after the fall has made me rethink on whether GU is bearish.

Looking at the way that GU was bought at the lows yesterday,i believe that GU would recover back to 1.6160 atleast and from there, we need to see whether it is going to fall or whether it is going go still further up.

The levels in the chart have held up well so far. For today, i expect GU to push towards 1.6150 albeit a bit slowly as there will be lot of selling above 1.6100. Trade safe and be nimble.

Quick Outlook for EURUSD - 9th Feb 2011

Attached is the chart for EURUSD. The levels are the same and as can be seen, the levels have been well respected so far.

As for today, the euro seems to be quite bullish for the day and what has surprised me a lot is the fact that euro did not fall even when China hiked rates. Usually when China hikes rates, the USD would gain in strength but that has not happened so far. For today, expect a move up from current levels (1.3645) or expect a push down to 1.3620 and then a move up. 1.3680 would prove to be a huge resistance but if that is broken cleanly, expect move towards 1.3750 for today and then on to 1.40 over the next 2-3 days.

Quick Post on GBPUSD

Somehow the whole upmove on the EURUSD does not look very good to me. There has been too slow progress and the volume stats also do not support the move. But the market can be irrational for quite a long time and so i dont want to challenge the market.

Through all this, GBPUSD has not moved much. It has tried to make progress today but has been repeatedly beaten down. To its credit, it has not broken thru major support levels yet. But the volume studies in GBPUSD and EURGBP on the daily charts suggest that GBPUSD might make a big down move over the next 2-3 days. This ties up with the rate statement on Thursday. EURGBP looks highly bullish to me and GBPUSD looks bearish. I might be wrong but thats what i see. Trade safe.

Intra Day EURUSD Outlook and Levels - 8th Feb 2011

Attached is the chart for EURUSD with the levels for today. As can be seen, the levels are the same as they were yesterday. It was a very strange day was yesterday. I,for one, did not expect eurusd to bounce towards the end of the day and i was a bit surprised to see that. Thankfully for me, i am mainly a day trader and i did not have any open positions as it was close to the end of the trading day for me.

So, today is a new day for me and this gives me a chance to take stock and re-evaluate things. From what i see today, i believe that today will be an up day for the Euro, though i will be very careful with the trades today. The picture is not as straight forward as with the shorts yesterday and so be very careful today. Expect price to go down to 1.3580 during the early european hours and then expect price to move up.

Again, be very careful and nimble and follow the levels strictly. Be ready to reverse whenever you see signs for that on the charts.

Review of Todays Outlook - 7th Feb 2011

Attached are the 15M charts of EURUSD and GBPUSD from today. The vertical line is the time when i had posted my outlook for EURUSD and GBPUSD in the morning. As you can see, all the support/resistance lines have been very well respected for today.

As i had mentioned in my outlook for EURUSD, today has been a down day and the next big support would come in at 1.3470. I dont think price would reverse in any great manner till we reach 1.3470.

As for GBPUSD, i had mentioned in the morning that we should expect a push towards 1.6160-6180 and then a move down. Which is exactly what we have had today. Price moved towards the resistance at 1.6160-80 and we have been moving down. To complete its daily range, it needs to move further down but i am close to the end of my trading day and so i am shutting shop. It may or may not reach 1.6080 but i do expect to see 1.6040 by end of tomorrow.

Before i go, i will let you in on a secret. You know how many pips i made in the fall of GBPUSD? 1 pip !! yes...1 pip...Though i had predicted the fall and though the price stuck to the exact levels that i had mentioned, i could make just 1 pip from the move. Thats the difference between a great analysis and a great trade :-))...I made 47 pips from 2 separate shorts on the EURUSD, thats a separate matter...:-)...

Intra-Day Outlook for GBPUSD and Levels - 7th Feb 2011

Have a look at the attached chart for the intra-day levels for GBPUSD. Again, these levels were drawn by me quite some days back and they seem to be holding very well, as can be seen from the chart.

For today, I would expect GBPUSD to be trading between 1.6180 to 1.6040. I would expect an upthrust towards 1.6160-1.6180 during the early european hours and then we should expect a move down towards 1.6040.

Again, i cant stress this enough. Analysis is one thing and trading is another. Look at your charts, be nimble. Dont be stubborn. Trade well.

Intra Day EURUSD Outlook and Levels - 7th Feb 2011

Have a look at the chart to know the levels to watch out for as far as EURUSD is concerned, on an intra-day basis. I do understand that these are quite a few levels, but when you are trading intra-day, you are looking for only 20-30 pips moves per trade and these levels should be fine for that. Some of these levels are more important than the others. Once you develop a plan for yourself, you can easily conclude whether the price would stop at a level or would go on to the next level and you can then trade accordingly.

These levels were drawn by me many days back and you can see how these levels have been respected on Friday and today, so far. I have shown the levels on a 4H chart so that all the levels can be seen clearly.

As for my outlook today, i would expect EURUSD to have a bearish day today and test the 1.3490s level today. Of course, things could change during the course of the day and as traders, we need to be nimble to switch sides based on what we see. Dont be stubborn to hold on to your positions thinking 'this has to go down cos so-and-so said so' or 'this has to go up cos so-and-so indicator shows that'. Be nimble, have tight stops.