As pointed out yesterday, there was a great battle yesterday in the euro to decide whether to take it to 1.44 or 1.41. Now we are here at 1.44. In my opinion, this is not the place to go long. For this, i have a couple of reasons. First is the fact that we have moved more than 100 pips in the Asian aka low-volume session after being in a 60 pip range for 2 days. This smells like a trap upmove before we start falling.
Also, take out the weekly chart, you will see a big ABCD pattern that is bearish with the D point coming in around 1.44-1.45. So, for me, this is not a place for longs.
But the euro has been behaving strangely for so many days by not falling despite all the bad news. So nothing is to be taken for granted. With all the bad news behind the euro and with everyone being ultra-bullish abt it, maybe this is the time for a good correction to 1.41 or 1.3950 before the next leg up. Lets see.
Trade Safe!!
